I’m not going to bore everybody with spatial autocorrelation statistics. That’s mostly because I doin’t understand spatial autocorrelation statistics. The important thing is most of Roddey’s votes came from a limited number of precincts.
It’s clear Roddey must turn out the vote in these three precincts if he is going to win. What is less clear, how much is enough. Local elections have notoriously low turnout, and local runoffs are even worse. I would now begin to predict what kind of turnout we can expect today, but as early precincts come in we can start to get a picture of where the candidates are over and underperforming.
One of Roddey’s clear advantages is the Ward 5 election where Nikita Jackson is challenging incumbent Ann Williamson. Both Rock Hill No. 2 and Edgewood are in Ward 5. The additional attention to that race may be the difference Roddey needs. To see more about the Ward 5 race click here or to watch the returns as they come in click below.